Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds: A tale of two markets

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

International Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.013

Tadgh Hegarty, Karl Whelan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win, or a draw, as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019). In particular, there is a strong pattern of favourite–longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Forecasting Multiple-

CiteScore

17.10

自引率

11.40%

发文量

189

审稿时长

77 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.