Vehicle trajectory fractal theory for macro-level highway crash rate analysis

IF 5.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS

Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2025.107989

Yuhan Nie , Min Zhang , Bo Wang , Chi Zhang , Yijing Zhao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Vehicle trajectory data can reveal actual driving behavior patterns reflected by different road geometric designs, providing important insights for road safety analysis and improvements. This study aims to is to explore the correlation between vehicle trajectory fractal dimension (FD) and highway crash rate (CR) using large-scale telematics trajectory data. Specifically, we propose three methods to measure the FD of vehicle trajectories, and developed fractal parameter estimation technology. The results show that FD differences between road segments have a statistically significant effect on CR. A comparison of FD with five common surrogates in identifying high-risk crash sections reveals that FD reduces the false alarm rate from 52% to 94% (other surrogates) to 46%, with a recall rate of 95%. The fractal method enhances the dimensionality of trajectory feature analysis, refining the granularity of road safety analysis. It fully considers the interaction between road geometry design and driving behavior, revealing the complex dynamic movement of vehicles within the road system. This study provides methodological support for improving road geometry design and enhancing road safety.

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来源期刊

Accident; analysis and prevention Multiple-

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

16.90%

发文量

264

审稿时长

48 days

期刊介绍： Accident Analysis & Prevention provides wide coverage of the general areas relating to accidental injury and damage, including the pre-injury and immediate post-injury phases. Published papers deal with medical, legal, economic, educational, behavioral, theoretical or empirical aspects of transportation accidents, as well as with accidents at other sites. Selected topics within the scope of the Journal may include: studies of human, environmental and vehicular factors influencing the occurrence, type and severity of accidents and injury; the design, implementation and evaluation of countermeasures; biomechanics of impact and human tolerance limits to injury; modelling and statistical analysis of accident data; policy, planning and decision-making in safety.