Xiaoping Chen , Haibo Dong , Zhiming Qi , Dongwei Gui , Liwang Ma , Kelly R. Thorp , Robert Malone , Hao Wu , Bo Liu , Shaoyuan Feng
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Affected by climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, the efficacy of agricultural management practices is of particular concern in a hyper–arid area. The effects of future climate change on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yield and water productivity (WP) were assessed under deficit irrigation strategies in China’s southern Xinjiang region. A previously calibrated and validated RZWQM2 model simulated cotton production for two time periods ranging between 2061–2080 and 2081–2100, under automatic irrigation method based on crop plant available water, factorially combined with four irrigation levels (100 %, 80 %, 60 %, and 50 %). Weather data was obtained from ten general circulation models, and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways were tested. Deficit irrigation under climate change showed a simulated decrease in water use and production of cotton compared to the baseline (1960–2019). For the 2061–2080 period, mean simulated seed cotton yields were 4.43, 4.44, 3.95 and 3.47 Mg ha–1 (vs. baseline: 4.65, 4.40, 3.58, 2.63 Mg ha−1) with the 100 %, 80 %, 60 % and 50 % irrigation levels. A 3.4 %-28.6 % of decrease (vs. baseline) in seed cotton yield was found under SSP585 scenario in 2081–2100. The 80 %PAW–based irrigation provided the highest WP of 12.8 kg m–3 and 8.4 kg m–3 for 2061–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively, comparing to the baseline WP of 0.82 kg m–3. Under SSP585 for 2081–2100, the simulated WP declined from 0.19 kg m–3 at 100 % irrigation levels to 0.04 kg m–3 at 50 % irrigation levels. These projections suggests that adequate irrigation is the key to ensure cotton production and moderate deficit irrigation can be applied to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on cotton yield in a hyper–arid area.
受气候变化和大气二氧化碳水平升高的影响,农业管理做法的有效性在极度干旱地区尤其令人关注。在亏缺灌溉条件下,研究了未来气候变化对南疆棉花产量和水分生产力的影响。RZWQM2模型在4个灌溉水平(100 %、80 %、60 %和50 %)的因子组合下,模拟了2061-2080和2081-2100两个时间段的棉花产量。从十个大气环流模型中获得天气数据,并对两个共享的社会经济路径进行了测试。与基线(1960-2019年)相比,气候变化下的亏缺灌溉模拟显示,棉花的用水量和产量减少。2061-2080年期间,在100 %、80 %、60 %和50 %的灌溉水平下,模拟棉籽棉的平均产量分别为4.43、4.44、3.95和3.47 Mg ha - 1(与基线相比:4.65、4.40、3.58和2.63 Mg ha - 1)。在SSP585情景下,2081-2100年棉籽棉产量下降3.4 % ~ 28.6 %(与基线相比)。在2061-2080年和2081-2100年,以80% %为基础的灌溉可提供最高的WP,分别为12.8 kg m-3和8.4 kg m-3,而基线WP为0.82 kg m-3。在SSP585条件下,2081-2100年的模拟WP从100% %灌溉水平下的0.19 kg m-3下降到50% %灌溉水平下的0.04 kg m-3。这些预测表明,充足的灌溉是保证棉花产量的关键,适度的亏缺灌溉可以缓解气候变化对超干旱地区棉花产量的负面影响。
期刊介绍:
Agricultural Water Management publishes papers of international significance relating to the science, economics, and policy of agricultural water management. In all cases, manuscripts must address implications and provide insight regarding agricultural water management.