Incorporating preoperative and intraoperative data to predict postoperative pneumonia in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiothoracic surgery: The online two-stage prediction tool

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q3 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

Geriatric Nursing Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.gerinurse.2025.02.012

Siyu Zhang MSc , Kunduzi Tuerganbayi MSc , Jiawen Wang MSc , Hao Liu MD , Po Shen MMed , Yaoyi Guo MMed , Yi Zhong MMed , Yue Feng MMed , Mingtao Ma MMed , Weifeng Yao PhD , Huaming Xia PhD , Kaizong Huang PhD , Yanna Si MD , Anran Dai MSc , Jianjun Zou PhD

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Prior research on postoperative pneumonia (POP) risk models focused on preoperative factors but overlooked intraoperative variables vital for precision. These models also neglected the higher-risk elderly population. This study seeks to develop and evaluate preoperative and combined models to predict POP risk in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiothoracic surgery.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 444 patients who underwent non-cardiothoracic surgery at Nanjing First Hospital from March 2021 to April 2022 was included. Univariate analysis and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were employed to develop preoperative and combined logistic regression models.

Results

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for both models exceeded 0.80, indicating excellent discriminatory ability. Furthermore, the combined model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to the preoperative model.

Conclusion

This study developed preoperative and combined nomograms that offer practical and innovative tools for clinicians to predict POP risk and improve patient care.

Abstract Image

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结合术前和术中数据预测非心胸外科老年患者术后肺炎：在线两阶段预测工具

背景先前对术后肺炎（POP）风险模型的研究侧重于术前因素，但忽略了对准确性至关重要的术中变量。这些模型还忽略了高风险的老年人群。本研究旨在开发和评估术前和联合模型来预测非心胸外科手术老年患者的POP风险。方法回顾性分析2021年3月至2022年4月在南京市第一医院行非心胸外科手术的444例患者。采用单因素分析和最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）回归建立术前和联合logistic回归模型。结果两种模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积均大于0.80，具有较好的判别能力。此外，与术前模型相比，联合模型显示出更高的预测准确性。结论：本研究开发了术前和联合nomography，为临床医生预测POP风险和改善患者护理提供了实用和创新的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geriatric Nursing 医学-护理

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

7.40%

发文量

257

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Geriatric Nursing is a comprehensive source for clinical information and management advice relating to the care of older adults. The journal''s peer-reviewed articles report the latest developments in the management of acute and chronic disorders and provide practical advice on care of older adults across the long term continuum. Geriatric Nursing addresses current issues related to drugs, advance directives, staff development and management, legal issues, client and caregiver education, infection control, and other topics. The journal is written specifically for nurses and nurse practitioners who work with older adults in any care setting.