Analysing Land Use and Cover Transformations in Berhampore, West Bengal, India: A CA-Markov and ANN Simulation Approach for Future Predictions

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a multifaceted and dynamic process influenced by factors like population growth, economic development, and climate shifts. This study delves into the LULC changes spanning 1991–2021 in Berhampore, a district headquarters in Murshidabad, West Bengal, India. Notable findings include expanding built-up land from 5.25 to 9.30%, reducing agricultural land from 81.98 to 72.36%, and increasing plantation or forest land from 8.45 to 13.23%. The change transition matrix highlights significant shifts, notably the transformation of agricultural land into built-up areas (15.92 km²) and conversion to plantation or forest land (25.96 km²) and water bodies (5.54 km²). A chord diagram visually represents the transition matrix’s outcomes. Utilising the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, the study forecasts Berhampore’s LULC for 2031. Forecasts indicate an ongoing increase in built-up land and a decrease in agricultural land. Concurrently, the area of plantation or forest land is projected to expand. Employing remote sensing and GIS techniques, the research tracks LULC changes and engages in a focus group discussion with local stakeholders. Findings underscore the intricate interplay between LULC, urbanisation, and environmental dynamics. The study underscores the urgency of sustainable city planning, resource management, and community involvement to manage these transformations while preserving community well-being and ecological equilibrium. As cities expand and populations grow, this research highlights the imperative to balance development with environmental preservation for the more significant benefit of society and nature.