Synergistic Governance of Urban Heat Islands, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Air Pollution in China: Evidence from a Spatial Durbin Model

Abstract

Advancing the synergistic governance of urban heat island (UHI), energy consumption (EC), CO₂ emissions and air pollution (collectively referred to as heat-energy-carbon-pollution, HECP) is essential for China’s green transition. This study examined five representative indicators of HECP—namely, urban heat island intensity (UHII), EC, CO₂ emissions, PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations—using panel data from 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2020. The Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was employed to identify the key drivers of HECP governance at both national and regional levels. Results indicated significant spatiotemporal disparities in UHII, EC, CO₂ emissions, concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃, exhibiting a north-south gradient and pronounced intensities in eastern China. At the national level, energy structure (ES), population density (POP), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were identified as crucial determinants of HECP synergistic governance. Regional variations were also observed, particularly in eastern China, where industrial structure (IS) and POP played significant roles. Moreover, the spillover effects of these drivers were stronger than their direct effects, highlighting the necessity of interregional cooperation for effective HECP synergistic governance. Our findings underscore the need for a green energy transition, strategic population management, and expanded vegetation coverage. Furthermore, the study highlights the critical role of cross-regional collaboration in improving governance efficiency, offering empirical support for China’s integrated environmental and climate policies.