Investigating the Association Between Mean Arterial Pressure on 28-Day Mortality Risk in Patients With Sepsis: Retrospective Cohort Study Based on the MIMIC-IV Database.

Abstract

Background: Sepsis is a globally recognized health issue that continues to contribute significantly to mortality and morbidity in intensive care units (ICUs). The association between mean arterial pressure (MAP) and prognosis among patients with patients is yet to be demonstrated.

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the association between MAP and 28-day mortality in ICU patients with sepsis using data from a large, multicenter database.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. We extracted data of 35,010 patients with sepsis from the MIMIC-IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care) database between 2008 and 2019, according to the Sepsis 3.0 diagnostic criteria. The MAP was calculated as the average of the highest and lowest readings within the first 24 hours of ICU admission, and patients were divided into 4 groups based on the mean MAP, using the quadruple classification approach. Other worst-case indications from the first 24 hours of ICU admission, such as vital signs, severity of illness scores, laboratory indicators, and therapies, were also gathered as baseline data. The independent effects of MAP on 28-day mortality were explored using binary logistic regression and a two-piecewise linear model, with MAP as the exposure and 28-day mortality as the outcome variables, respectively. To address the nonlinearity relationship, curve fitting and a threshold effect analysis were performed.

Results: A total of 34,981 patients with sepsis were included in the final analysis, the mean age was 66.67 (SD 16.01) years, and the 28-day mortality rate was 16.27% (5691/34,981). The generalized additive model and smoothed curve fitting found a U-shaped relationship between MAP and 28-day mortality in these patients. The recursive algorithm determined the low and high inflection points as 70 mm and 82 mm Hg, respectively. Our data demonstrated that MAP was negatively associated with 28-day mortality in the range of 34.05 mm Hg-69.34 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] 0.93, 95% CI 0.92-0.94; P<.001); however, once the MAP exceeded 82 mm Hg, a positive association existed between MAP and 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis (OR 1.01; 95% CI 1.01-1.02, P=.002).

Conclusions: There is a U-shaped association between MAP and the probability of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Both the lower and higher MAP were related with a higher risk of mortality in patients with sepsis. These patients have a decreased risk of mortality when their MAP remains between 70 and 82 mm Hg.