[Analysis of epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 of liver cancer in China].

Abstract

Objective: To analyze and predict the incidence and mortality rate condition from 1990 to 2021 and 2022 to 2045 in China so as to evaluate the impact of different ages, periods, and birth cohorts on liver cancer. Methods: The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database was used. The variation trend of standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The age, period, and cohort effects were used to explore liver cancer incidence and mortality rates based on the age-period-cohort model. The Nordpred prediction model was used to fit the trend of standardized incidence and mortality rates in liver cancer. Simultaneously, the standardized incidence and mortality rates were predicted from 2022 to 2045 for liver cancer. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed using the GBDASR_aapc package. Results: The standardized incidence and mortality rate from 1990 to 2021 of liver cancer showed an overall downward trend year by year in China (P<0.01). Age, period, and cohort effects were all risk factors for the incidence of liver cancer. The incidence and mortality rates both increase with age, reaching a peak in the 85～89 age group. The risk of HCC morbidity and mortality was higher in the population of early-stage birth cohorts. Although the period effect showed a slight upward trend over time, the change in the period effect was relatively small. The incidence and mortality rates after the age of 40 were significantly higher in males than those of females. The prediction results showed that the standardized incidence and mortality rates from 2022 to 2045 of liver cancer have had a downward trend in China. Conclusion: The standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer show an overall downward trend in China, but the burden in males is still high. Therefore, liver cancer prevention and control work in the future should continue to strengthen intervention in high-risk groups.