Assessing land use and carbon storage changes using PLUS and InVEST models: A multi-scenario simulation in Hohhot

Abstract

The impact of land-use change on regional carbon sequestration is a crucial concern in the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization. This study utilized the Patch-Generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade -offs (InVEST) model to predict land-use patterns in Hohhot, China. The dynamics of carbon stocks under various scenarios were evaluated using historical land-use data and 15 influencing factors. From 2000 to 2020, Hohhot City experienced a net loss of 1.58 million tonnes of carbon storage, mainly due to the conversion of arable land and grassland into developed land. By 2030, carbon storage is projected to reach 147.67 million tonnes in the natural-development scenario, 148.46 million tonnes in the ecological-protection scenario, and 147.33 million tonnes in the economic-growth scenario. The highest carbon storage was expected under the ecological-protection scenario, highlighting the importance of environmental regulations in reducing carbon loss and promoting sustainable development. This study presents a replicable methodology that integrates scenario-modeling with policy-oriented interventions, providing valuable insights for land-use planning and carbon management in rapidly urbanizing regions.