Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change to the tourism of Tønsberg, Norway

Abstract

A model is developed to assess the impact of a changing climate to the tourism of the town of Tønsberg, offering data suitable for evaluating the downstream implications to related business sectors. The methodology comprises downscaled data from EuroCORDEX scenarios, weather station observations, and records of visitors to museums of the municipality. To achieve this, correlation patterns are sought between the weather station observations and monthly/yearly visitor numbers. The highest correlation was found to be provided by the mean temperature over the weekends, which complies well with the nature of Tønsberg as a short (sub-daily) visit destination over weekends, without overnight stays. By developing a regression model and tying it to local weather predictions derived from EuroCORDEX, we are able to quantify the probabilistic distribution of yearly visitors and observe the potential effects of a changing climate. Assuming all else remains as is, this shows benefits for the tourism of Tønsberg, befitting its northern coastal (non-alpine) nature. The methodology presented is general enough to be applicable to other cities as long as sufficient data is available.