The role of economic size in the interaction between international trade, international tourist arrivals, and transport modes: Empirical evidence in Vietnam

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI:10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101349

Quang Hai Nguyen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the role of economic size in the interaction between international trade, international tourist arrivals, and transport modes using the SARIMAX-(E)GARCH model. Using quarterly data for the period 2000–2023 in Vietnam shows that GDP is an important factor explaining the volatility of international trade, international tourist arrivals, and the majority of transport modes in Vietnam. International trade drives the majority of freight transport modes, but it is also positively impacted by sea and air transport. International tourist arrivals is a factor that promotes international trade and has a two-way relationship with passenger transport modes. The growth of international tourist arrivals also contributes to the development of air, road, and rail transport, and vice versa. Meanwhile, its relationship with passenger transport by sea and inland waterways has had the opposite trend. The interaction also shows the tendency for products to be complementary or substitutes between modes of transport. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected international tourist arrivals and most modes of passenger transport, but it has had little impact on international freight and trade. These findings show the different roles of factors and are the basis for forecasting and setting out policies for the development of trade, tourism, and transport.

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经济规模在国际贸易、国际游客抵达和运输方式之间的相互作用中的作用：越南的经验证据

本研究利用SARIMAX-(E)GARCH模型探讨了经济规模在国际贸易、国际游客抵达和运输方式之间的相互作用中的作用。使用越南2000-2023年期间的季度数据表明，GDP是解释越南国际贸易，国际游客到达和大多数运输方式波动的重要因素。国际贸易推动了大多数货运方式，但也受到海运和空运的积极影响。国际旅游人次是促进国际贸易的因素，与客运方式存在双向关系。国际旅游人数的增长也有助于航空、公路和铁路运输的发展，反之亦然。与此同时，其与海运和内河客运的关系却呈现出相反的趋势。这种相互作用也显示了产品在运输方式之间互为补充或替代的趋势。新冠肺炎疫情对国际游客入境和大多数客运方式产生了负面影响，但对国际货运和贸易的影响不大。这些发现显示了各种因素的不同作用，是预测和制定贸易、旅游和运输发展政策的基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in Transportation Business and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

175

期刊介绍： Research in Transportation Business & Management (RTBM) will publish research on international aspects of transport management such as business strategy, communication, sustainability, finance, human resource management, law, logistics, marketing, franchising, privatisation and commercialisation. Research in Transportation Business & Management welcomes proposals for themed volumes from scholars in management, in relation to all modes of transport. Issues should be cross-disciplinary for one mode or single-disciplinary for all modes. We are keen to receive proposals that combine and integrate theories and concepts that are taken from or can be traced to origins in different disciplines or lessons learned from different modes and approaches to the topic. By facilitating the development of interdisciplinary or intermodal concepts, theories and ideas, and by synthesizing these for the journal''s audience, we seek to contribute to both scholarly advancement of knowledge and the state of managerial practice. Potential volume themes include: -Sustainability and Transportation Management- Transport Management and the Reduction of Transport''s Carbon Footprint- Marketing Transport/Branding Transportation- Benchmarking, Performance Measurement and Best Practices in Transport Operations- Franchising, Concessions and Alternate Governance Mechanisms for Transport Organisations- Logistics and the Integration of Transportation into Freight Supply Chains- Risk Management (or Asset Management or Transportation Finance or ...): Lessons from Multiple Modes- Engaging the Stakeholder in Transportation Governance- Reliability in the Freight Sector