Longer-run equilibrium interest rates: evidence from the United Kingdom

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economica Pub Date : 2024-12-26 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12566

Omar Kaykhusraw

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Abstract

The natural rate of interest ( $r^{*}$ ) has recently been in decline, yet little is known about its historical variation. This paper estimates $r^{*}$ over more than three centuries for the United Kingdom, between 1700 and 2019. Results suggest that the longer-run equilibrium interest rate rose persistently during much of the 18th and 19th centuries, and only began to decline around the turn of the 20th. Historical decompositions suggest that structural changes in productivity, demography, and risk are largely responsible for this reduction. I argue that secular stagnation is unique to contemporary history, insofar as $r^{*}$ ascended across much of the Late Modern Era.

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长期均衡利率：来自英国的证据

自然利率（r * $$ {r}^{\ast } $$）最近一直在下降，但人们对其历史变化知之甚少。本文估计了英国在1700年至2019年间三个多世纪的r * $$ {r}^{\ast } $$。结果表明，在18世纪和19世纪的大部分时间里，长期均衡利率持续上升，直到20世纪之交才开始下降。历史分解表明，生产率、人口结构和风险的结构性变化是造成这种减少的主要原因。我认为长期停滞是当代历史所独有的，因为r * $$ {r}^{\ast } $$在近代晚期的大部分时间都上升了。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economica ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

5 weeks

期刊介绍： Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.