Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand Versus Supply

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI:10.1002/jae.3109

Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Long-run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take centre stage in accounting for this slowdown: the demand-side view and the supply-side view. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends identified using sign restrictions. While supply-side factors were the main driver of long-run GDP growth prior to 2000, demand-side factors explain half of its slowdown afterwards. The findings highlight the importance of demand-side factors as drivers of long-run growth.

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确定增长放缓的根源：需求与供给

在过去的二十年里，美国的长期GDP增长一直在下降。在解释这种放缓时，两种相互竞争的观点占据了中心位置：需求方观点和供应方观点。我根据经验量化了它们在贝叶斯SVAR中的相对重要性，并使用符号限制确定了共同趋势。虽然在2000年之前，供给侧因素是长期GDP增长的主要驱动力，但在2000年之后，需求侧因素解释了一半的经济放缓。这些发现凸显了需求侧因素作为长期增长驱动因素的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.