Efficient sampling in disease surveillance through subpopulations: Sampling canaries in the coal mine

IF 0.9 4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Statistics & Probability Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI:10.1016/j.spl.2025.110384

Ivo V. Stoepker

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We consider outbreak detection settings of endemic diseases where the population consists of subpopulations available for stratified surveillance. Rather than sampling uniformly across the population, one may elevate effectiveness of detection methodology by optimally choosing a sampling subpopulation. We show (under some assumptions) the relative sampling efficiency between two subpopulations is inversely proportional to the ratio of their baseline disease risks. This implies one can increase sampling efficiency by sampling from the subpopulation with higher baseline disease risk. Our results require careful treatment of power curves of exact binomial tests as a function of their sample size, which are non-monotonic due to the underlying discreteness. A case study of COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands illustrates our theoretical findings.

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通过亚种群进行疾病监测的有效抽样：煤矿中的金丝雀抽样

我们考虑流行病暴发检测设置，其中人口由可分层监测的亚人口组成。与其在整个人群中均匀取样，不如通过最佳选择抽样亚群体来提高检测方法的有效性。我们显示（在某些假设下）两个亚群之间的相对抽样效率与他们的基线疾病风险之比成反比。这意味着可以通过从基线疾病风险较高的亚群中抽样来提高抽样效率。我们的结果需要仔细处理精确二项检验的功率曲线作为其样本量的函数，由于潜在的离散性，它是非单调的。对荷兰COVID-19病例的案例研究说明了我们的理论发现。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Statistics & Probability Letters 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

173

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Statistics & Probability Letters adopts a novel and highly innovative approach to the publication of research findings in statistics and probability. It features concise articles, rapid publication and broad coverage of the statistics and probability literature. Statistics & Probability Letters is a refereed journal. Articles will be limited to six journal pages (13 double-space typed pages) including references and figures. Apart from the six-page limitation, originality, quality and clarity will be the criteria for choosing the material to be published in Statistics & Probability Letters. Every attempt will be made to provide the first review of a submitted manuscript within three months of submission. The proliferation of literature and long publication delays have made it difficult for researchers and practitioners to keep up with new developments outside of, or even within, their specialization. The aim of Statistics & Probability Letters is to help to alleviate this problem. Concise communications (letters) allow readers to quickly and easily digest large amounts of material and to stay up-to-date with developments in all areas of statistics and probability. The mainstream of Letters will focus on new statistical methods, theoretical results, and innovative applications of statistics and probability to other scientific disciplines. Key results and central ideas must be presented in a clear and concise manner. These results may be part of a larger study that the author will submit at a later time as a full length paper to SPL or to another journal. Theory and methodology may be published with proofs omitted, or only sketched, but only if sufficient support material is provided so that the findings can be verified. Empirical and computational results that are of significant value will be published.