Spatio-temporal dynamics of future aboveground carbon stocks in natural forests of China

Abstract

Natural forests are the primary carbon sinks within terrestrial ecosystems, playing a crucial role in mitigating global climate change. China has successfully restored its natural forest area through extensive protective measures. However, the aboveground carbon (AGC) stock potential of China's natural forests remains considerably uncertain in spatial and temporal dynamics. In this study, we provide a spatially detailed estimation of the maximum AGC stock potential for China's natural forests by integrating high-resolution multi-source remote sensing and field survey data. The analysis reveals that China's natural forests could sequester up to 9.88 ​± ​0.10 ​Pg ​C by 2030, potentially increasing to 10.46 ​± ​0.11 ​Pg ​C by 2060. Despite this, the AGC sequestration rate would decline from 0.19 ​± ​0.001 to 0.08 ​± ​0.001 ​Pg ​C·yr⁻¹ over the period. Spatially, the future AGC accumulation rates exhibit marked heterogeneity. The warm temperate deciduous broadleaf forest region with predominantly young natural forests, is expected to exhibit the most significant increase of 26.36% by 2060, while the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Alpine region comprising mainly mature natural forests would exhibit only a 0.74% increase. To sustain the high carbon sequestration capacity of China's natural forests, it is essential to prioritize protecting mature forests alongside preserving and restoring young natural forest areas.