Are past ownership experience and satisfaction major determinants of endorsement and future demand for zero emission vehicle technology when accounting for vehicle characteristics?

Abstract

Considering the worldwide impacts of climate change, it is crucial to embrace sustainable transport alternatives in order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. This study seeks to probe the impact factors of future vehicle choices and recommendations to other potential users. Specifically, clustering is first done based on vehicle attributes to group users' future vehicle intentions. Then a weighted multinomial logistic model (MNL) is developed to study the impact factors of people's future vehicle demand. Following that, three distinct models are evaluated to identify factors influencing consumer willingness to recommend three different zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) listed by the California Air Resources Board, namely plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), with past experiences (reflected by post-purchase satisfaction in this study) serving as mediators. Finally, the relationship between past experiences and future vehicle demand is discussed. Future vehicle choices are classified into four groups that based on fuel type, body size, vehicle addition or replacement, and desire for new or used automobiles. The results indicate that consumers who have experienced sustainable vehicles are more likely to continue to select them in the future. In terms of the impact factors of ZEV satisfaction and recommendation, PHEV owners are concerned about the costs associated with gasoline and electricity consumption at home. BEV users consider not just all of the aforementioned but also battery range and the availability of public charging stations. FCEV users value the convenience of refueling their vehicles.