Coupled Urban Risks: A Complex Systems Perspective with a People-Centric Focus

Abstract

The complexity of coupled risks, which refer to the compounded effects of interacting uncertainties across multiple interdependent objectives, is inherent to cities functioning as dynamic, interdependent systems. A disruption in one domain ripples across various urban systems, often with unforeseen consequences. Central to this complexity are people, whose behaviors, needs, and vulnerabilities shape risk evolution and response effectiveness. Realizing cities as complex systems centered on human needs and behaviors is essential to understanding the complexities of coupled urban risks. This paper adopts a complex systems perspective to examine the intricacies of coupled urban risks, emphasizing the critical role of human decisions and behavior in shaping these dynamics. We focus on two key dimensions: cascading hazards in urban environments and cascading failures across interdependent exposed systems in cities. Existing risk assessment models often fail to capture the complexity of these processes, particularly when factoring in human decision-making. To tackle these challenges, we advocate for a standardized taxonomy of cascading hazards, urban components, and their interactions. At its core is a people-centric perspective, emphasizing the bidirectional interactions between people and the systems that serve them. Building on this foundation, we argue the need for an integrated, people-centric risk assessment framework that evaluates event impacts in relation to the hierarchical needs of people and incorporates their preparedness and response capacities. By leveraging real-time data, advanced simulations, and innovative validation methods, this framework aims to enhance the accuracy of coupled urban risk modeling. To effectively manage coupled urban risks, cities can draw from proven strategies in real complex systems. However, given the escalating uncertainties and complexities associated with climate change, prioritizing people-centric strategies is crucial. This approach will empower cities to build resilience not only against known hazards but also against evolving and unforeseen challenges in an increasingly uncertain world.