Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO2 emission rates.

IF 3.6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Bulletin of Volcanology Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-26 DOI:10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6
B Esse, M Burton, C Hayer, G La Spina, A Pardo Cofrades, M Asensio-Ramos, J Barrancos, N Pérez
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

As global populations grow, the exposure of communities and infrastructure to volcanic hazards increases every year. Once a volcanic eruption begins, it becomes critical for risk managers to understand the likely evolution and duration of the activity to assess its impact on populations and infrastructure. Here, we report an exponential decay in satellite-derived SO2 emission rates during the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, La Palma, Canary Islands, and show that this pattern allows a reliable and consistent forecast of the evolution of the SO2 emissions after the first third of the total eruption duration. The eruption ended when fluxes dropped to less than 6% of their fitted maximum value, providing a useful benchmark to compare with other eruptions. Using a 1-D numerical magma ascent model, we suggest that the exponentially decreasing SO2 emission trend was primarily produced by reducing magma chamber pressure as the eruption emptied the feeding reservoir. This work highlights the key role that satellite-derived SO2 emission data can play in forecasting the evolution of volcanic eruptions and how the use of magma ascent models can inform the driving mechanisms controlling the evolution of the eruption.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6.

利用TROPOMI/ plumetraj衍生的SO2排放率预测2021年La Palma Tajogaite火山喷发的演变
随着全球人口的增长,社区和基础设施面临的火山灾害每年都在增加。火山爆发一旦开始,对于风险管理人员来说,了解火山活动的可能演变和持续时间,以评估其对人口和基础设施的影响,就变得至关重要。本文报告了2021年加那利群岛拉帕尔马岛Tajogaite火山喷发期间卫星得出的二氧化硫排放率呈指数衰减,并表明这种模式可以可靠和一致地预测总喷发持续时间的前三分之一之后二氧化硫排放率的演变。当通量下降到小于其拟合最大值的6%时,火山喷发结束,这为与其他火山喷发进行比较提供了一个有用的基准。利用一维数值岩浆上升模型,我们认为SO2排放量呈指数下降趋势主要是由于喷发使补给库清空,岩浆室压力降低所致。这项工作强调了卫星衍生的二氧化硫排放数据在预测火山喷发演化过程中的关键作用,以及如何利用岩浆上升模型为控制火山喷发演化的驱动机制提供信息。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,可在10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6获取。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Bulletin of Volcanology
Bulletin of Volcanology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
20.00%
发文量
89
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Bulletin of Volcanology was founded in 1922, as Bulletin Volcanologique, and is the official journal of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI). The Bulletin of Volcanology publishes papers on volcanoes, their products, their eruptive behavior, and their hazards. Papers aimed at understanding the deeper structure of volcanoes, and the evolution of magmatic systems using geochemical, petrological, and geophysical techniques are also published. Material is published in four sections: Review Articles; Research Articles; Short Scientific Communications; and a Forum that provides for discussion of controversial issues and for comment and reply on previously published Articles and Communications.
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