Spatiotemporal analysis of African swine fever in wild boar in Serbia from 2020 to 2024.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly fatal viral haemorrhagic disease affecting pigs. This study uses official surveillance data to investigate the persistence and spread of ASF in wild boar populations in Serbia from 2020 to 2024. A total of 480 ASF cases were analysed, with spatiotemporal clustering conducted via SaTScan™ and proximity analyses performed in the Quantum Geographic Information System. The yearly prevalence of ASF in wild boar rose steadily from 0.66% in 2020 to 1.47% in 2023. Seasonal trends showed a significant increase in cases during winter (68%) and spring (24%). Five distinct clusters were identified, predominantly near the borders with North Macedonia and Bulgaria, suggesting potential cross-border transmission. Proximity to major roads was significantly associated with ASF case distribution (p  0.01), while proximity to water bodies and elevation showed no consistent pattern. The findings highlight critical gaps in current passive surveillance systems, which likely underestimate ASF prevalence. The study underscores the need for enhanced surveillance in remote and wooded areas and proposes strategies to improve ASF monitoring and control in wild boar populations.Contribution: This study highlights the feasibility of cost-effective, non-invasive surveillance methods for ASF detection, offering critical insights for low-income countries where resources for intensive disease monitoring are limited. By demonstrating how environmental and anthropogenic factors drive ASF dynamics, this research provides actionable strategies for improving regional and global ASF control efforts.