Lifetime probabilities of developing and dying from cancer in China: comparison with Japan and the United States in 2022.

Abstract

The numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in China were the largest in the world, causing a huge social and economic burden. We attempt to use more intuitive indicators to measure the probabilities of being diagnosed of or dying from cancer in China and compare these probabilities with those in Japan and the United States (US). We obtained the cancer data from GLOBOCAN 2022 for China, Japan, and the US and the all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The lifetime risks of developing and dying from cancer were estimated with adjusted actual life expectancy, multiple primaries, and death-competing risks from causes other than cancers. Approximately 27.61% of Chinese people developed cancer and 1 in 5 persons were likely to die from cancer. The highest-risk cancer among men and women was lung cancer in China, but in the US and Japan, prostate cancer among men and breast cancer among women posed the highest risk. Lung cancer presented the highest likelihood of death, but women in Japan had the highest likelihood of dying from colorectal cancer. China had a lower lifetime risk of developing cancer compared with Japan and the US, but a higher probability of dying from cancer than the US. Although the probability of developing cancer was not as high as that in Japan and the US, China was still faced with enormous pressure due to its huge population and contradictory cancer patterns. Estimating lifetime risks can provide essential information to formulate appropriate cancer prevention and control plans.