Cancer mortality predictions for 2025 in Latin America with focus on prostate cancer.

IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY
Silvia Mignozzi, Claudia Santucci, Fabio Levi, Matteo Malvezzi, Paolo Boffetta, Giovanni Corso, Eva Negri, Carlo La Vecchia
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Abstract

We provided cancer mortality rate estimates for the year 2025 in six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico), focusing on prostate cancer. We extracted mortality data for all cancers combined and the most common sites from the WHO and population data since 1970 from the United Nations. Estimates for 2025 were computed applying a linear regression to the most recent segment identified through Poisson join-point regression. Avoided deaths number from 1991 to 2025 was estimated by applying the 1990 peak rate to population data. Mortality from all cancers is predicted to be favorable for both sexes in all countries. The lowest total cancer mortality rates are expected in Mexico (67.7/100 000 males; 61.4/100 000 females), while the highest ones in Cuba (136.6/100 000 males; 91.6/100 000 females). Prostate cancer mortality is declining in all countries, although rates remain high in Cuba (25.2/100 000 in 2025). Downward patterns are observed for all age groups in all countries, except the elderly in Cuba and Mexico. Declines in mortality are predicted for colorectal (except for males in Brazil and Cuba, and females in Chile), stomach (except Cuban males), pancreatic (except Argentinian and Cuban males), lung, bladder (except Argentinian females), breast, and ovarian (except Cuba) cancers. Uterine cancer mortality, particularly from cervical cancer, remains highin Argentina (10.2/100 000) and Cuba (10.4/100 000). Except for uterine, stomach, and prostate cancers, cancer mortality rates are still relatively low in Latin America, except Cuba. Controlling tobacco particularly in Cuba, implementing organized cervical cancer screening, and advancing cancer treatment also for prostate cancer remain crucial in all countries considered.

2025年拉丁美洲癌症死亡率预测,重点是前列腺癌。
我们提供了六个拉丁美洲国家(阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、古巴和墨西哥)2025年的癌症死亡率估计,重点是前列腺癌。我们从世界卫生组织提取了所有癌症的死亡率数据和最常见的地点,从联合国提取了1970年以来的人口数据。对2025年的估计是通过泊松连接点回归对最近的部分进行线性回归计算得出的。1991年至2025年的避免死亡人数是通过将1990年的峰值率应用于人口数据来估计的。预计在所有国家,所有癌症的死亡率对男女都有利。预计墨西哥的癌症总死亡率最低(67.7/10万男性;61.4/10万女性),而古巴最高(136.6/10万男性;91.6/100 000)。前列腺癌死亡率在所有国家都在下降,但古巴的死亡率仍然很高(2025年为25.2/10万)。除古巴和墨西哥的老年人外,所有国家的所有年龄组都出现下降趋势。预计结直肠癌(巴西和古巴男性除外,智利女性除外)、胃癌(古巴男性除外)、胰腺癌(阿根廷和古巴男性除外)、肺癌、膀胱癌(阿根廷女性除外)、乳腺癌和卵巢癌(古巴除外)的死亡率将下降。子宫癌死亡率,特别是子宫颈癌死亡率,在阿根廷(10.2/10万)和古巴(10.4/10万)仍然很高。除子宫癌、胃癌和前列腺癌外,除古巴外,拉丁美洲的癌症死亡率仍然相对较低。特别是在古巴控制烟草,实施有组织的宫颈癌筛查,以及推进前列腺癌的癌症治疗,在所审议的所有国家仍然至关重要。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
4.20%
发文量
96
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: European Journal of Cancer Prevention aims to promote an increased awareness of all aspects of cancer prevention and to stimulate new ideas and innovations. The Journal has a wide-ranging scope, covering such aspects as descriptive and metabolic epidemiology, histopathology, genetics, biochemistry, molecular biology, microbiology, clinical medicine, intervention trials and public education, basic laboratory studies and special group studies. Although affiliated to a European organization, the journal addresses issues of international importance.
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