COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on HIV and AIDS Case Reporting in Peru: A Time Series Analysis of Surveillance Data (1983–2023)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic substantially disrupted healthcare services worldwide, and its impact on the identification and reporting of HIV and AIDS cases has become a critical concern. This study evaluated the effects of the pandemic on HIV/AIDS surveillance in Peru through a natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis of national surveillance data. Analysis of trends from 1985 to 2023 for HIV and from 1983 to 2023 for AIDS revealed consistent pre-pandemic increases, with an average annual growth of 27.02% for HIV cases and 20.48% for AIDS cases. However, the onset of the pandemic in 2020 was associated with significant immediate declines, with reductions of 1,609.86 HIV cases (95% CI: −3,147.26 to − 72.46) and 1,187.68 AIDS cases (95% CI: −1,560.10 to − 815.26). Furthermore, comparisons against ARIMA forecasts (HIV accuracy = 84.80%, AIDS accuracy = 85.45%) indicated substantial underreporting during the 2020–2023 period—estimated at 15.77% for HIV and 29.03% for AIDS cases. These results underscore the adverse effect of the COVID-19 crisis on ongoing HIV/AIDS case detection and reporting in Peru. They also highlight the urgent need for robust strategies—such as expanding telemedicine, enhancing self-testing, and reinforcing community-based interventions—to ensure continuous access to diagnosis and treatment during public health emergencies.