Shifting, expanding, or contracting? Range movement consequences for biodiversity.

Abstract

Climate change is causing species ranges to shift, expand, and contract, with divergent and underappreciated consequences for local and global biodiversity. Widespread range shifts should increase local diversity in most areas but reduce it in the tropical lowlands. Widespread expansions should maintain diversity at low latitudes while increasing diversity elsewhere, leading to stable global biodiversity. Expansions and shifts are both common responses to climate change now and in the deep past. To understand how changing ranges will reshape Earth's biodiversity, we argue for three research directions: (i) leverage paleontological data to reveal long-term biodiversity responses, (ii) better monitor low-elevation and latitude limits to distinguish shifts from expansions, and (iii) incorporate dispersal barriers that can turn would-be shifts into contractions and extinctions.