Examining the Antecedents, Prevalence and Trajectories of Reactionary Collective Action Intentions Among Europeans Over Time

Abstract

Reactionary movements—movements that effectively increase inequality by advancing the rights of structurally advantaged groups—are of increasing concern in contemporary politics. Yet few studies assess support for these movements over time. We address this oversight in two studies examining reactionary collective action intentions over 9 years in a nationwide sample of New Zealand Europeans (N_total = 54,561). Random intercept cross-lagged panel modelling (Study 1) and latent class growth analysis (Study 2) reveal that high ethnic identification, social dominance orientation and conservatism, but low system justification, predict both within-person increases in, and class trajectories of, reactionary collective action intentions over time. Although most Europeans (86.62%) reported low and declining reactionary collective action intentions, a subgroup of Reactionaries (13.38%) emerged whose intentions increased over time. Collectively, these results highlight how and when reactionary collective action intentions emerge over time and illustrate the need to monitor social movements seeking to promote inequality.