Research About Green Electricity and Zero-Carbon Fuel on Reduction of CO2 Emissions for Commercial Vehicles Under “Dual-Carbon” Target

Abstract

China's CO₂ emissions from commercial vehicles have an important impact on global climate change. However, a systematic research analysis, especially from new energy in the “dual-carbon” time is still insufficient. Thus, based on zero-carbon energy (green electricity, green hydrogen, and green ammonia), this paper carries out the research about CO₂ emissions prediction between zero-carbon energy and diesel in light-duty trucks and different sales fraction projects of zero-carbon energy from 2020 to 2060, and the changes in the quantity of light-duty trucks (including stock, increment, scrap and total amount). The calculation results show that CO₂ emissions from diesel is the largest, a gradual upward trend in general, and reaches peak value in 2055 (1.793 billion tons). Based on different sales fraction projects for green electricity trucks, CO₂ emissions of peak in 2035. As penetration increases, CO₂ emissions gradually decline. Reduction of CO₂ emissions of Project_1 is 19.94% and will stabilize after 2055. However, CO₂ emissions of Project_4 stabilize after 2040 and 15 years earlier than Project_4's, and CO₂ emissions are nearly zero. The change rule of CO₂ emissions from “Diesel + Green Hydrogen” and “Diesel + Green Ammonia” is similar, and CO₂ emissions from “Diesel + Green Ammonia” is higher than that of “Diesel + Green Hydrogen”. The permeability of Project_4 changes greatly, and the results are a large reduction. Based on 2020's data, and as gray ammonia is fuel, the results show that the current overall emission level can be reduced only when the CO₂ emissions level for the production of gray ammonia reduces by less than 30% of the current level. These results obviously have guiding significance to low CO₂ emissions from commercial vehicles.