Battery electric buses in emerging markets and developing economies: A pathway for a just energy transition

Abstract

This study highlights the transformative potential of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) to enhance sustainable public transportation in major global cities. It introduces the ATHENA model, a simulation tool designed to assess the economic, environmental, and social implications of transitioning urban bus fleets to BEBs in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). As a case study, ATHENA was applied to Curitiba, Brazil, a city renowned for its pioneering urban mobility planning initiatives. The results demonstrate that BEBs can achieve cost parity with diesel buses over a 15-year contract, although this transition poses a higher risk of increased consumer fares. Moreover, direct ownership of BEBs infrastructure is more financially advantageous than service contracts. This is because service contracts, while offering lower upfront costs, often lead to higher long-term operational expenses. To address these challenges and ensure equitable access to transportation, the study proposes policy strategies, including urban tolls and parking fees, to facilitate the transition without restricting mobility for low-income groups.