Invasion percolation Markov Chains – A probabilistic framework for assessing vertical CO2 migration

Abstract

Potential CO₂ storage sites need to perform risk assessments on the likelihood of anomalous events such as leakage. The intrinsic heterogeneity of the rock system with uncertain values for the capillary threshold pressures of the various rock elements is the most likely reason for unexpected vertical migration of CO₂ within a storage complex. This study shows how the Invasion Percolation Markov Chain approach can be used to address this concern. We tested the approach using detailed 3D models of the multi-layer plume at Sleipner showing that even small variations in the threshold pressures of the shales can impact the flow of CO₂ into multiple accumulations. Models with and without shale breaks reveal the importance of vertical feeders and/or faults, and the geometry of the shale layers is also crucial as the CO₂ strongly conforms to topography. We demonstrate that the vertical migration of CO₂ at Sleipner follows a Markovian model in which the probability of later migration events is highly dependent of the probability of preceding events. This case study illustrates how the initial migration events, which have the highest probability of occurring, should be the focus of CO₂ storage risk assessments.