Impact of combined environmental policies on carbon emission reduction: A system dynamics analysis

IF 4.4 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101912

Yue Zhang , Xin-gang Zhao , Ying Zhou , Hui Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Carbon Emission Trading (CET), Energy Consumption Trading (ECT), and Financial Subsidy (FS) policies are essential mechanisms for mitigating carbon emissions and play a critical role in the development of China's electricity and carbon markets. However, the extent to which CET, ECT, and FS—representing typical command-and-control and market-incentive regulatory approaches—affect carbon emission reduction in China remains inadequately explored. This study analyzes and predicts the impacts of various combinations of CET, ECT, and FS policies on carbon emission reduction by developing System Dynamics (SD) models of the energy, electricity, and carbon markets. The results indicate the following. First, the ECT policy significantly influences carbon emissions, the supply of CET, and expected CET sales and purchases. Furthermore, ECT and CET policies exhibit an interconnected effect. Second, carbon emissions increase proportionally with the combined impacts of ECT, FS, and CET policies, projected to peak in 2026–2027. By 2050, carbon intensity is expected to be 87.64% lower than in 2026. Third, the installed capacity of thermal power plants and renewable energy generation enterprises demonstrates a consistent growth trend. By 2050, the installed capacity of renewable energy generation enterprises is expected to increase by 85.06%, while their power generation capacity is anticipated to rise by 142%.

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综合环境政策对碳减排的影响：系统动力学分析

碳排放交易（CET）、能源消费交易（ECT）和财政补贴（FS）政策是减缓碳排放的重要机制，在中国电力和碳市场的发展中发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，CET、ECT和fs（代表典型的命令控制和市场激励监管方式）对中国碳减排的影响程度仍未得到充分探讨。本文通过建立能源、电力和碳市场的系统动力学（SD）模型，分析和预测了CET、ECT和FS政策的不同组合对碳减排的影响。结果表明：首先，ECT政策显著影响碳排放、CET供应和预期CET销售和购买。此外，ECT和CET政策表现出相互关联的效应。其次，碳排放随着ECT、FS和CET政策的综合影响成比例地增加，预计将在2026-2027年达到峰值。到2050年，碳强度预计将比2026年降低87.64%。三是火电厂和可再生能源发电企业装机容量持续增长。到2050年，可再生能源发电企业装机容量预计增长85.06%，发电量预计增长142%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.