Impact of combined environmental policies on carbon emission reduction: A system dynamics analysis

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101912

Yue Zhang , Xin-gang Zhao , Ying Zhou , Hui Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Carbon Emission Trading (CET), Energy Consumption Trading (ECT), and Financial Subsidy (FS) policies are essential mechanisms for mitigating carbon emissions and play a critical role in the development of China's electricity and carbon markets. However, the extent to which CET, ECT, and FS—representing typical command-and-control and market-incentive regulatory approaches—affect carbon emission reduction in China remains inadequately explored. This study analyzes and predicts the impacts of various combinations of CET, ECT, and FS policies on carbon emission reduction by developing System Dynamics (SD) models of the energy, electricity, and carbon markets. The results indicate the following. First, the ECT policy significantly influences carbon emissions, the supply of CET, and expected CET sales and purchases. Furthermore, ECT and CET policies exhibit an interconnected effect. Second, carbon emissions increase proportionally with the combined impacts of ECT, FS, and CET policies, projected to peak in 2026–2027. By 2050, carbon intensity is expected to be 87.64% lower than in 2026. Third, the installed capacity of thermal power plants and renewable energy generation enterprises demonstrates a consistent growth trend. By 2050, the installed capacity of renewable energy generation enterprises is expected to increase by 85.06%, while their power generation capacity is anticipated to rise by 142%.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.