Complexity in long-term stand dynamics of mixed-species, multi-cohort stands using an imputation/copula tree growth model

IF 3.7 2区农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY

Forest Ecology and Management Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122559

Yung-Han Hsu , John A. Kershaw Jr , Aaron R. Weiskittel , Mark J. Ducey

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Long-term stand structural dynamics are complex due to stochastic processes within natural systems. Although forest growth and yield models are widely used to forecast stand dynamics, there are still limitations in their ability to capture the full range of outcomes. An individual tree imputation/copula (I/C) model using nearest neighbor imputation and copula sampling is used to generate multiple projections to estimate uncertainty of future stand structures. The Nova Scotia permanent sample plots (NSPSP; n = 3250) were used as the reference data to simulate 500-year projections of Acadian Forest stand development. Species composition was more uncertain than size structure. Initial levels of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) basal area significantly impacted long-term forest stand dynamics. Red maple basal area generally increased in all stand types while balsam fir (BF; Abies balsamea (L.) Mill) and red spruce (RS; Picea rubens Sarg.) generally decreased. Despite the relatively simple structure of the I/C model, complex stand dynamics can be predicted; however, the model is limited by the range of conditions represented in the reference data. The ability to estimate uncertainty in long-term stand development and the potential to assess forest management planning risk makes the I/C modelling approach a potentially powerful tool.

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来源期刊

Forest Ecology and Management 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

10.80%

发文量

665

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Forest Ecology and Management publishes scientific articles linking forest ecology with forest management, focusing on the application of biological, ecological and social knowledge to the management and conservation of plantations and natural forests. The scope of the journal includes all forest ecosystems of the world. A peer-review process ensures the quality and international interest of the manuscripts accepted for publication. The journal encourages communication between scientists in disparate fields who share a common interest in ecology and forest management, bridging the gap between research workers and forest managers. We encourage submission of papers that will have the strongest interest and value to the Journal''s international readership. Some key features of papers with strong interest include: 1. Clear connections between the ecology and management of forests; 2. Novel ideas or approaches to important challenges in forest ecology and management; 3. Studies that address a population of interest beyond the scale of single research sites, Three key points in the design of forest experiments, Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 2022-2023); 4. Review Articles on timely, important topics. Authors are welcome to contact one of the editors to discuss the suitability of a potential review manuscript. The Journal encourages proposals for special issues examining important areas of forest ecology and management. Potential guest editors should contact any of the Editors to begin discussions about topics, potential papers, and other details.