Carbon reduction and cost analysis in solar-biomass synergy for UAE’s 2030 energy transition

Abstract

The United Arab Emirates faces a sharp rise in electricity demand, driven by the expansion of electric transportation, urban growth, and the increasing adoption of electric appliances. To address this, a strategic revision of the national energy policy is critical to achieve the UAE’s commitment at COP28 to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, preliminary analyses suggest that relying solely on solar energy expansion, even with energy storage, may not be sufficient to meet the emissions target of 0.27 kg CO${}_2$ per kWh by 2030. This study evaluates the integration of solar energy with two biomass sources: organic biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW)-based biomass, to address this gap. Organic biomass, despite higher fuel and capital costs, provides a stable and carbon-neutral energy source, while MSW-based biomass offers dual benefits of energy generation and urban waste management. Our findings indicate that combining solar and biomass significantly reduces the levelized cost of electricity and annual fuel costs while delivering substantial reductions in carbon emissions. For instance, incorporating biomass reduces the LCOE of the energy mix from $45.8/MWh in the baseline scenario to $38.1/MWh with organic biomass and $39.4/MWh with MSW-based biomass, while improving grid stability and enhancing storage utilization. This analysis highlights the critical role of a diversified renewable energy strategy in achieving the UAE’s sustainability goals. By integrating solar and bio-energy, the UAE can transition towards a cost-effective, resilient, and carbon-neutral energy system, paving the way for a more sustainable future.