GLOF modelling of Torre Lake and its potential impact in El Chaltén, Santa Cruz, Argentina: Preliminary results

IF 1.7 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of South American Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI:10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105417

Daniela I. Schmidt , Diego A. Winocur , Pierre Pitte , Anahí Benitez

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The northern slope of the Cerro Solo, located in Southern Patagonian Andes, has a significant instability which could trigger a sudden release of large amounts of water contained in the Torre proglacial lake (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, GLOF). Such events are highly complex phenomena, with diverse origins and often catastrophic consequences. This paper examines the potential for a rapid increase in the water level caused by a sudden landslide into the Torre Lake, which could lead to an overflow. The subsequent release of water could flood the Fitz Roy River, with the potential to produce damage downstream in El Chaltén locality and its surroundings, affecting inhabitants and tourists visiting the area.

In this study, various empirical methods for predicting landslide-generated impulse waves are compared. These methods are then applied to model the potential GLOF. The advantages and disadvantages of this procedure are analyzed and discussed. Based on the estimation of peak discharges of lake outflow using empirical formulas, a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model was implemented to simulate two potential outburst scenarios, with estimated peak discharges of 1166 m³/s and 1769 m³/s. The possible inundation extent and its impact were assessed based on the depth of water and the flow velocity. This study is a preliminary step toward understanding the magnitude of a potential future GLOF event and what elements that could be affected in order to develop an effective response to minimize impact.

查看原文本刊更多论文

阿根廷圣克鲁斯省埃尔查尔特恩地区托雷湖的冰湖洪水模型及其潜在影响：初步结果

Cerro Solo的北坡位于南巴塔哥尼亚安第斯山脉，具有显著的不稳定性，可能引发Torre前冰湖（冰湖溃决洪水，GLOF）中大量水的突然释放。这类事件是高度复杂的现象，起因各异，后果往往是灾难性的。本文研究了突发性滑坡进入托尔湖导致水位迅速上升的可能性，这可能导致溢流。随后释放的水可能淹没菲茨罗伊河，有可能对下游的El chalt地区及其周围地区造成破坏，影响到该地区的居民和游客。本研究比较了各种预测滑坡冲击波的经验方法。然后将这些方法应用于潜在GLOF的建模。对该方法的优缺点进行了分析和讨论。在利用经验公式估算湖泊出水口洪峰流量的基础上，建立了二维水动力模型，模拟了两种潜在溃决情景，估计洪峰流量分别为1166 m3/s和1769 m3/s。根据水深和流速对可能的淹没程度及其影响进行了评估。这项研究是了解未来可能发生的GLOF事件的规模以及可能受到影响的因素的初步步骤，以便制定有效的应对措施，将影响降到最低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of South American Earth Sciences 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

22.20%

发文量

364

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Papers must have a regional appeal and should present work of more than local significance. Research papers dealing with the regional geology of South American cratons and mobile belts, within the following research fields: -Economic geology, metallogenesis and hydrocarbon genesis and reservoirs. -Geophysics, geochemistry, volcanology, igneous and metamorphic petrology. -Tectonics, neo- and seismotectonics and geodynamic modeling. -Geomorphology, geological hazards, environmental geology, climate change in America and Antarctica, and soil research. -Stratigraphy, sedimentology, structure and basin evolution. -Paleontology, paleoecology, paleoclimatology and Quaternary geology. New developments in already established regional projects and new initiatives dealing with the geology of the continent will be summarized and presented on a regular basis. Short notes, discussions, book reviews and conference and workshop reports will also be included when relevant.