GLOF modelling of Torre Lake and its potential impact in El Chaltén, Santa Cruz, Argentina: Preliminary results

IF 1.7 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of South American Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI:10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105417

Daniela I. Schmidt , Diego A. Winocur , Pierre Pitte , Anahí Benitez

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The northern slope of the Cerro Solo, located in Southern Patagonian Andes, has a significant instability which could trigger a sudden release of large amounts of water contained in the Torre proglacial lake (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, GLOF). Such events are highly complex phenomena, with diverse origins and often catastrophic consequences. This paper examines the potential for a rapid increase in the water level caused by a sudden landslide into the Torre Lake, which could lead to an overflow. The subsequent release of water could flood the Fitz Roy River, with the potential to produce damage downstream in El Chaltén locality and its surroundings, affecting inhabitants and tourists visiting the area.

In this study, various empirical methods for predicting landslide-generated impulse waves are compared. These methods are then applied to model the potential GLOF. The advantages and disadvantages of this procedure are analyzed and discussed. Based on the estimation of peak discharges of lake outflow using empirical formulas, a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model was implemented to simulate two potential outburst scenarios, with estimated peak discharges of 1166 m³/s and 1769 m³/s. The possible inundation extent and its impact were assessed based on the depth of water and the flow velocity. This study is a preliminary step toward understanding the magnitude of a potential future GLOF event and what elements that could be affected in order to develop an effective response to minimize impact.

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来源期刊

Journal of South American Earth Sciences 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

22.20%

发文量

364

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Papers must have a regional appeal and should present work of more than local significance. Research papers dealing with the regional geology of South American cratons and mobile belts, within the following research fields: -Economic geology, metallogenesis and hydrocarbon genesis and reservoirs. -Geophysics, geochemistry, volcanology, igneous and metamorphic petrology. -Tectonics, neo- and seismotectonics and geodynamic modeling. -Geomorphology, geological hazards, environmental geology, climate change in America and Antarctica, and soil research. -Stratigraphy, sedimentology, structure and basin evolution. -Paleontology, paleoecology, paleoclimatology and Quaternary geology. New developments in already established regional projects and new initiatives dealing with the geology of the continent will be summarized and presented on a regular basis. Short notes, discussions, book reviews and conference and workshop reports will also be included when relevant.