[Analysis of Influencing Factors and Establishment of Nomogram Model of Differentiation Syndrome in Patients with Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia].

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of differentiation syndrome (DS) during induction chemotherapy for acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), and establish a prediction model for DS in newly diagnosed APL patients, in order to guide clinical treatment.

Methods: The clinical data of 324 newly diagnosed APL patients were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients were divided into DS group and non-DS group according to whether or not DS was present. Statistically significant factors from comparison of the two groups were selected and included in univariate and multivariate logistic regression to explore the influencing factors of DS in APL. R software was used to build the nomogram model, Bootstrap method was used for internal verification, and concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.

Results: The incidence of DS in 324 patients with newly diagnosed APL was 30.86% (100/324). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that high risk, delayed retinoic acid, no hormonal prophylaxis, combined with disseminated intravascular coagulation, increased white blood cell count (WBC) at initial diagnosis and neutrophil count, prothrombin prolongation, decreased fibrinogen and albumin (ALB), increased proportion of bone marrow original cells, increased proportion of peripheral blood original cells, and increased peak of WBC after chemotherapy were risk factors for DS in newly diagnosed APL patients (all P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the increased peak value of WBC after chemotherapy, prophylactic use of hormone, and ALB level were independent factors influencing the occurrence of DS in newly diagnosed APL patients (all P < 0.01). The C-index of DS in APL predicted by the nomogram model was 0.847(95%CI : 0.786-0.908). The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual incidence of DS.

Conclusion: The independent influencing factors of DS in newly diagnosed APL are the increased peak value of WBC after chemotherapy, ALB and prophylactic use of hormone. The nomogram model based on the above factors can predict the risk of DS in APL patients, which is consistent with clinical observation.