Characterization of greenhouse gas emissions and water requirement of farmland in China's main grain-producing areas under future climate scenarios

IF 6.1 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104293

Yuxin Yang , Yihe Tang , Shikun Sun , Zemin Yang , Siya Wang , Peng Zhang , Yubao Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

CONTEXT

Addressing the key challenges that climate change posed by agricultural sustainability requires special attention to greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural water use. Differences among crops and regions significantly affect the water‑carbon characteristics of grain production to climate change. However, the mechanisms underlying this impact and its assessment at high resolution over long timescales remain insufficiently understood.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to estimate the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (cGHG) and water requirement of maize, rice, and wheat under different climate scenarios in China's major grain-producing areas from 2021 to 2100, and to quantify their temporal and spatial variation characteristics.

METHODS

Based on the future climate data of six global climate models (GCMs) under the CMIP6, this study used the calibrated the Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) model and the improved Penman-Monteith formula to quantify the GHG emission and water requirements during the growth period of maize, rice, and wheat under three societal development scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 from 2021 to 2100.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The result showed that the parameterized DNDC model performed well in the study area, with a yeild R² of 0.98 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 247.25 kg/ha. Under multiple emission scenarios, the cGHG of maize and wheat showed a significant downward trend over time, while the cGHG of rice increased. The emission hotspots were mainly concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The water requirement (ET_c) of the three crops increased significantly with time and showed a reverse pattern with the spatial distribution of cGHG. The high ET_c values areas were concentrated in the central part of the study area and the western part of Inner Mongolia, and the water deficit was also the most serious.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study clarifies long-term trends and spatial variations in water‑carbon fluxes, providing essential data to inform climate adaptation strategies in agriculture, water conservation efforts, and emissions reduction initiatives.

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来源期刊

Agricultural Systems 农林科学-农业综合

CiteScore

13.30

自引率

7.60%

发文量

174

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments. The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas: Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making; The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment; Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems; Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.