A framework for the modelling and the analysis of epidemiological spread in commuting populations

IF 1.9 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109403

Pierre-Alexandre Bliman , Boureima Sangaré , Assane Savadogo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly speaking the case in populous urban centre. Our modelling contribution develops along two axes. To model the commuting, we consider a large number of distinct homogeneous groups of individuals of various sizes, called subpopulations, and focus on the modelling of the changing conditions of their mixing along time and of the induced disease transmission. Also, for the purposes of the study, we propose a general class of epidemiological models in which the ‘force of infection’ plays a central role, which extends and unifies several classes previously developed. We take special care in explaining the modelling approach in details, and provide first analytic results that allow to compute or estimate the value of the basic reproduction number for such general periodic epidemic systems.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Biosciences 生物-生物学

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

2.30%

发文量

审稿时长

18 days

期刊介绍： Mathematical Biosciences publishes work providing new concepts or new understanding of biological systems using mathematical models, or methodological articles likely to find application to multiple biological systems. Papers are expected to present a major research finding of broad significance for the biological sciences, or mathematical biology. Mathematical Biosciences welcomes original research articles, letters, reviews and perspectives.