Millennium-Scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Soil Moisture Influence on Western Mediterranean Cloudiness.

Abstract

Understanding long-term historical changes in cloudiness is essential for elucidating Earth's climate dynamics and variability and its extremes. In this study, we present the first millennial-length reconstruction of the annual total cloud cover (TCC) in the western Mediterranean, covering the period from 969 to 2022 CE. Based on a comprehensive set of hydrological and atmospheric variables, our reconstruction reveals a nuanced pattern of cloudiness evolution over the past millennium. We observe an initial increase in cloudiness until 1600 CE, followed by a substantial decrease in TCC. This shift was driven by a confluence of factors, including the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815, increased solar forcing, and a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These complex dynamics have brought modern warming cloud patterns closer to those observed during the medieval period before c. 1250, exceeding the background variability of the Little Ice Age (c. 1250 to 1849). In particular, recent decades have witnessed an unprecedented coupling of intense solar activity, high temperatures, and the lowest cloud cover on record. Our results highlight the importance of inter-oceanic-scale relationships between Atlantic forcing mechanisms and the TCC in shaping future trends in western Mediterranean cloudiness. This study provides valuable insights into the long-term dynamics of cloudiness and its implications for regional climate trends in the western Mediterranean and beyond.