A holistic asset-level modelling framework for a comprehensive multi-hazard risk/impact assessment: Insights from the ICARIA project

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105319

Mattia Federico Leone , Giulio Zuccaro , Daniela De Gregorio , Agnese Turchi , Amanda Tedeschi , Marianne Büegelmayer-Blaschek , Athanasios Sfetsos , Ioannis Zarikos , Alex de la Cruz Coronas , Beniamino Russo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of climate- and weather-related phenomena have significantly increased over the past two decades, with future projections suggesting further escalation due to climate change. Compound events, involving coincident or consecutive hazards, and their cascading effects, often exacerbate the severity of disasters, resulting in greater damage than would result from isolated hazards. However, risk/impact assessments have predominantly used single-hazard approaches, limiting understanding of how multi-hazard interactions affect socio-eco-technological systems.

This paper presents a comprehensive asset-level modelling framework developed within the EU-funded Horizon Europe project ICARIA. The framework aims to assess risks/impacts and resilience to a wide range of natural phenomena, including droughts, heatwaves, extreme winds, wildfires, floods and landslides, as well as the potential cascading effects due to impacts on interdependent infrastructure systems. It enables the development of multi-hazard scenarios, data harmonisation, and the characterisation of exposure and vulnerability for different categories of elements at risk, particularly critical infrastructures and related services, thereby facilitating the estimation of direct and indirect damage. Furthermore, the framework incorporates coping, adaptive and transformative capacities as key-components of resilience, as well as human behavioural factors, into the modelling process.

Examples from initial testing of the framework on ICARIA case study regions are introduced to highlight the operational steps for its application, including the identification of reference multi-hazard risk/impact scenarios through event trees, the inventory of relevant modelling data and the interconnection of single hazard/impact models to determine the consequences of complex multi-hazard events on exposed assets and services.

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来源期刊

International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

18.00%

发文量

688

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.