Subway expansion, residential relocation, and travel behavior: Causal evidence from China

Abstract

The literature regarding the outcomes of rail transit investments varies between those who praise them for improving accessibility and those who criticize them for excluding residents who would benefit more from the improvements. Through the lens of residential relocation, this study examines the impact of rail transit investments by taking both sides of the argument into account. Based on the data of 71 new subway stations and individual residential trajectory in Shenzhen, we employ the difference-in-differences method to estimate the number of residents who moved into and out of neighborhoods served by these stations, as well as the behavioral outcomes associated with these relocations. The results indicate that the opening of new subway stations attracted newcomers to nearby neighborhoods, especially those who previously enjoyed transit proximity and exhibited greater reliance on it. Meanwhile, there was a significant decline in out-migration among existing residents after new stations opened. No evidence of transit-induced displacement was observed in terms of relocation size or direction. Instead, the attraction effects of new station openings were more pronounced in low-rent neighborhoods. However, we found that those moving-out residents, who lost subway access, significantly reduced subway usage and spent less time on non-work trips after relocating.