Economic impact and policies for the obesity pandemic in emerging economies

Abstract

A complementary methodology to traditional econometric analysis is proposed to estimate the economic impact of healthy eating and to evaluate policies against the obesity pandemic in emerging countries. The impact of healthy eating is quantified with a structural model based on stylized facts to define preferences, the relationship between disease and obesity, and agents’ perception of healthy eating. To illustrate the methodology, the model is estimated with Bayesian econometrics for a representative emerging country (Chile). The methodology is complementary to other alternatives, contributing to quantify the second-round benefits of food programs and public policies. Thus, to the extent that evaluation programs indicate that one or another alternative is beneficial, our proposal will show how these benefits are transferred to the entire economy and its productivity. This helps to add another criterion to classify the different policies, reinforcing the design and debate of public policies in this area and, also, with other matters of public interest. The results indicate that an emerging economy may be foregoing a substantial part of its growth if the obesity pandemic is not adequately addressed with policies that change agents’ behavior.