Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios.

Abstract

In this study, we predicted the global climatic suitability of Tuta absoluta, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We used species' natural occurrence records in 1981-2024 and environmental variables in 1981-2010, reflecting near-current climate conditions, for modeling. The occurrence records used for modeling excluded the data from greenhouses and summer-only presence. The optimized MaxEnt models demonstrated an excellent predictive performance; Jaccard's and Sørensen's indices were greater than 0.8. Temperature, particularly the mean daily air temperature in February (tas2), was identified as the primary influencing factor. Projections based on five global climate models (GCMs) and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicated an increasing risk of T. absoluta expansion. Under SSP126, the lowest-risk period (2011-2040) exhibited a 7.08% increase in suitable areas, while SSP370 during the highest-risk period (2071-2100) projected an 18.13% increase relative to near-current conditions. Model outputs underestimated the pest's actual distribution, underscoring its invasive potential. We recommend stringent quarantine measures, particularly for artificial facilities that support overwintering, to mitigate future invasions. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders to safeguard global tomato production against this invasive threat.