Contributions of Atmospheric Ridging and Low Soil Moisture to the Record-Breaking June 2023 Mexico-Texas Heatwave

Abstract

June 2023 witnessed the hottest, largest, and longest-lasting heatwave across Mexico and Texas between 1940 and 2023. We apply constructed analogs with multiple linear regression models to quantify the contribution of different drivers to daily temperature anomalies during this heatwave. On the hottest day (20 June), circulation, soil moisture, and their interaction explained 3.82°C (90% CI: 2.72–4.91°C) of the 5.42°C observed anomaly with most of the residual attributed to the thermodynamic effects of long-term warming. Using CESM2-LENS2, we find that June 2023-like patterns are not projected to increase in frequency but will become 1.9°C hotter by the mid-21st century under SSP3-7.0. The hottest simulated day with these patterns could produce temperatures >50°C (122°F) across south Texas, representing a low-likelihood yet physically plausible worst-case scenario that could inform disaster preparedness and adaptation planning.