Development of a Machine Learning-Powered Optimized Lung Allocation System for Maximum Benefits in Lung Transplantation: A Korean National Data.

Abstract

Background: An ideal lung allocation system should reduce waiting list deaths, improve transplant survival, and ensure equitable organ allocation. This study aimed to develop a novel lung allocation score (LAS) system, the MaxBenefit LAS, to maximize transplant benefits.

Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed data from the Korean Network for Organ Sharing database, including 1,599 lung transplant candidates between September 2009 and December 2020. We developed the MaxBenefit LAS, combining a waitlist mortality model and a post-transplant survival model using elastic-net Cox regression, was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) values and Uno's C-index. Its performance was compared to the US LAS in an independent cohort.

Results: The waitlist mortality model showed strong predictive performance with AUC values of 0.834 and 0.818 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The post-transplant survival model also demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC: 0.708 and 0.685). The MaxBenefit LAS effectively stratified patients by risk, with higher scores correlating with increased waitlist mortality and decreased post-transplant mortality. The MaxBenefit LAS outperformed the conventional LAS in predicting waitlist death and identifying candidates with higher transplant benefits.

Conclusion: The MaxBenefit LAS offers a promising approach to optimizing lung allocation by balancing the urgency of candidates with their likelihood of survival post-transplant. This novel system has the potential to improve outcomes for lung transplant recipients and reduce waitlist mortality, providing a more equitable allocation of donor lungs.