Integrated modeling for the transition pathway of China's power system†

IF 32.4 1区 材料科学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Ziheng Zhu, Da Zhang, Xiaoye Zhang and Xiliang Zhang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accelerating decarbonization of the power system is at the heart of achieving China's carbon neutrality goal and mitigating global climate change. However, deploying multi-terawatts of variable renewable energy (VRE) may result in substantial system volatility. Here, using a temporally and spatially resolved model co-optimizing capacity expansion and system operation throughout the full 8760 hours in a planning year, we show that achieving −550 MtCO2 per year of negative emissions is feasible for China's power system by 2060 with 6000 GW of VRE, 5800 GW h of energy storage, and 850 MtCO2 per year of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), at the marginal carbon abatement cost of 750–1100 yuan per tCO2 (about 108–157 $ per tCO2). Multi-millions of hectares of land areas are necessary to accommodate the TW-scale installation of solar photovoltaic panels, with restricted land policies resulting in a 3.3% increase in electricity costs. System volatility also surges with higher penetration of VRE, represented by increasing variability in hourly marginal demand cost, necessitating firm resources to ensure capacity adequacy. Although these firm sources can earn higher generation revenues in peak hours, capacity compensation amounting to hundreds of yuan per kW (about tens of $ per kW) per year is still needed. Effective planning and policy formulation are essential to support China's decarbonization effort for its power sector.

中国电力系统转型路径的集成建模
加快电力系统的脱碳是实现中国碳中和目标和减缓全球气候变化的核心。然而,部署多太瓦的可变可再生能源(VRE)可能会导致大量的系统波动。在此,我们使用时间和空间分辨率模型,在规划年的整个8760小时内共同优化容量扩展和系统运行,结果表明,到2060年,中国电力系统实现- 5.5亿吨二氧化碳/年的负排放是可行的,VRE为6000吉瓦,储能为5800吉瓦,碳捕集与封存(CCS)为8.5亿吨二氧化碳/年,边际碳减排成本为750 - 1100元/tCO2(约108-157美元/tCO2)。数百万公顷的土地面积需要容纳tww规模的太阳能光伏电池板的安装,限制的土地政策导致电力成本增加3.3%。随着VRE渗透率的提高,系统波动性也会激增,表现为每小时边际需求成本的可变性增加,这就需要企业资源来确保产能充足。尽管这些公司在高峰时段可以获得更高的发电收入,但每年仍需要数百元/千瓦(约数十美元/千瓦)的容量补偿。有效的规划和政策制定对于支持中国电力行业的脱碳工作至关重要。
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来源期刊
Energy & Environmental Science
Energy & Environmental Science 化学-工程:化工
CiteScore
50.50
自引率
2.20%
发文量
349
审稿时长
2.2 months
期刊介绍: Energy & Environmental Science, a peer-reviewed scientific journal, publishes original research and review articles covering interdisciplinary topics in the (bio)chemical and (bio)physical sciences, as well as chemical engineering disciplines. Published monthly by the Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC), a not-for-profit publisher, Energy & Environmental Science is recognized as a leading journal. It boasts an impressive impact factor of 8.500 as of 2009, ranking 8th among 140 journals in the category "Chemistry, Multidisciplinary," second among 71 journals in "Energy & Fuels," second among 128 journals in "Engineering, Chemical," and first among 181 scientific journals in "Environmental Sciences." Energy & Environmental Science publishes various types of articles, including Research Papers (original scientific work), Review Articles, Perspectives, and Minireviews (feature review-type articles of broad interest), Communications (original scientific work of an urgent nature), Opinions (personal, often speculative viewpoints or hypotheses on current topics), and Analysis Articles (in-depth examination of energy-related issues).
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