Ship fire and explosion accident statistical analysis based on fault tree and Bayesian network

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Fire Safety Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI:10.1016/j.firesaf.2025.104358

Wenling Guan, Chenxiang Zhang, Chengjie Dong, Yueshuang Xia

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

To identify the potential causal factors of ship fire and explosion (F&E) accidents and develop effective prevention strategies, this study conducted a statistical analysis of 271 investigation reports on ship F&E accidents and identified 46 basic events. By combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Networks (BN), six key causal factors were recognized: fuel leakage, wooden structures, plastics and rubber, main engine hot surfaces, short circuits, and line faults. This study also revealed two main and two secondary accident paths. The two main accident paths are as follows: one is for fuel or lubricant leakage contact with high-temperature surfaces (e.g., main engine, exhaust system, and turbocharger) to start a fire; the other is for short circuits or line faults to ignite surrounding combustible materials (e.g., wooden structures, plastics, and rubber). Finally, this study proposes measures to prevent ship F&E accidents in the following three aspects: strengthening the management of combustible materials, paying attention to ignition source control, and improving accident path monitoring.

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基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的船舶火灾爆炸事故统计分析

为了识别船舶火灾爆炸事故的潜在原因，制定有效的预防策略，本研究对271份船舶火灾爆炸事故调查报告进行了统计分析，确定了46个基本事件。通过故障树分析（FTA）和贝叶斯网络分析（BN）相结合，识别出了燃油泄漏、木结构、塑料和橡胶、主机热表面、短路和线路故障6个关键原因。本研究还揭示了两个主要和两个次要的事故路径。两种主要的事故路径如下：一种是燃油或润滑油泄漏接触高温表面（如主机、排气系统、涡轮增压器）引起火灾；另一种是短路或线路故障引燃周围可燃材料（如木结构、塑料和橡胶）。最后，本文从加强可燃物管理、重视点火源控制、完善事故路径监控三个方面提出了预防船舶火灾事故的措施。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Fire Safety Journal 工程技术-材料科学：综合

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

9.70%

发文量

153

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Fire Safety Journal is the leading publication dealing with all aspects of fire safety engineering. Its scope is purposefully wide, as it is deemed important to encourage papers from all sources within this multidisciplinary subject, thus providing a forum for its further development as a distinct engineering discipline. This is an essential step towards gaining a status equal to that enjoyed by the other engineering disciplines.