Ship fire and explosion accident statistical analysis based on fault tree and Bayesian network

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Fire Safety Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI:10.1016/j.firesaf.2025.104358

Wenling Guan, Chenxiang Zhang, Chengjie Dong, Yueshuang Xia

{"title":"Ship fire and explosion accident statistical analysis based on fault tree and Bayesian network","authors":"Wenling Guan, Chenxiang Zhang, Chengjie Dong, Yueshuang Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.firesaf.2025.104358","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To identify the potential causal factors of ship fire and explosion (F&E) accidents and develop effective prevention strategies, this study conducted a statistical analysis of 271 investigation reports on ship F&E accidents and identified 46 basic events. By combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Networks (BN), six key causal factors were recognized: fuel leakage, wooden structures, plastics and rubber, main engine hot surfaces, short circuits, and line faults. This study also revealed two main and two secondary accident paths. The two main accident paths are as follows: one is for fuel or lubricant leakage contact with high-temperature surfaces (e.g., main engine, exhaust system, and turbocharger) to start a fire; the other is for short circuits or line faults to ignite surrounding combustible materials (e.g., wooden structures, plastics, and rubber). Finally, this study proposes measures to prevent ship F&E accidents in the following three aspects: strengthening the management of combustible materials, paying attention to ignition source control, and improving accident path monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50445,"journal":{"name":"Fire Safety Journal","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104358"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Fire Safety Journal","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711225000220","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

To identify the potential causal factors of ship fire and explosion (F&E) accidents and develop effective prevention strategies, this study conducted a statistical analysis of 271 investigation reports on ship F&E accidents and identified 46 basic events. By combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Networks (BN), six key causal factors were recognized: fuel leakage, wooden structures, plastics and rubber, main engine hot surfaces, short circuits, and line faults. This study also revealed two main and two secondary accident paths. The two main accident paths are as follows: one is for fuel or lubricant leakage contact with high-temperature surfaces (e.g., main engine, exhaust system, and turbocharger) to start a fire; the other is for short circuits or line faults to ignite surrounding combustible materials (e.g., wooden structures, plastics, and rubber). Finally, this study proposes measures to prevent ship F&E accidents in the following three aspects: strengthening the management of combustible materials, paying attention to ignition source control, and improving accident path monitoring.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Fire Safety Journal 工程技术-材料科学：综合

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

9.70%

发文量

153

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Fire Safety Journal is the leading publication dealing with all aspects of fire safety engineering. Its scope is purposefully wide, as it is deemed important to encourage papers from all sources within this multidisciplinary subject, thus providing a forum for its further development as a distinct engineering discipline. This is an essential step towards gaining a status equal to that enjoyed by the other engineering disciplines.