Predicting parole for emerging adult lifers: Do age, culpability, and rehabilitation matter?

Abstract

Emerging adults (aged between 18 and 25) are disproportionately arrested, incarcerated, and sentenced to life. Those serving parole eligible life sentences have the opportunity for reentry at the discretion of parole boards. The Supreme Court and several state appellate courts have recognized the lesser culpability and greater potential for rehabilitation of adolescents as a consideration in sentencing, which may extend to parole decisions. However, the consideration of lesser culpability and rehabilitation factors could vary depending on the parole candidate's age at the time of the crime. This study analyzes data coded from written parole board decisions of one state to examine how these factors predict parole outcomes across parole candidates incarcerated for crimes committed during youth, specifically focusing on those considered emerging adults at the time. Regression analyses found factors related to an emerging adult's reduced culpability, such as a history of parental abuse, decreased the likelihood of release, but rehabilitation factors increased the odds of release, suggesting age at the time of the crime may play a role in parole decision-making. How parole boards consider reduced culpability and rehabilitative factors for candidates who were emerging adults at the time of the crime has implications for policy and practice as they impact parole candidates' case for discretionary release.