Climate transition risk and industry returns: The impact of green innovation and carbon market uncertainty

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124056

Qi Zhou , Jiajun Ni , Cunyi Yang

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Abstract

This study explores how climate transition risk, green innovation, and carbon market uncertainty influence industry returns in economic cycles, providing crucial insights for industry-level low-carbon transition pathways. Utilizing an input-output (IO) life-cycle assessment model, we measure the total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of 28 industries in China from 2002 to 2020, distinguishing between direct and indirect emissions. We investigate the risk premium associated with transition risk and industry returns and analyze the moderating effects of physical risk, carbon market uncertainty, and green innovation. Our findings indicate that higher transition risk correlates with lower industry returns, with physical risk exacerbating this negative impact, while carbon market uncertainty and green innovations mitigate it. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that direct carbon emissions primarily drive the negative premium. Notably, the adverse effect of transition risk on industry returns has diminished since the Paris Agreement and is more evident in industries with lower concentration levels and higher centrality degree. This research offers new evidence on the interplay between climate transition risk and economic cycles, emphasizing the role of green finance and technological innovation in forecasting and navigating future economic developments.

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气候转型风险与产业回报：绿色创新与碳市场不确定性的影响

本研究探讨了经济周期中气候转型风险、绿色创新和碳市场不确定性对行业回报的影响，为行业层面的低碳转型路径提供了重要见解。利用投入产出（IO）生命周期评价模型，对2002 - 2020年中国28个行业的碳排放总量和碳强度进行了测度，并区分了直接排放和间接排放。我们研究了转型风险和行业回报的风险溢价，并分析了物理风险、碳市场不确定性和绿色创新的调节作用。我们的研究结果表明，较高的转型风险与较低的行业回报相关，物理风险加剧了这种负面影响，而碳市场的不确定性和绿色创新则缓解了这种负面影响。异质性分析表明，直接碳排放主要驱动负溢价。值得注意的是，自《巴黎协定》以来，转型风险对行业回报的不利影响有所减弱，且在集中度较低、中心性较高的行业中更为明显。本研究为气候转型风险与经济周期之间的相互作用提供了新的证据，强调了绿色金融和技术创新在预测和引导未来经济发展中的作用。

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来源期刊

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

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