Variation in Salmon Migration Phenology Bolsters Population Stability but Is Threatened by Drought

Abstract

Intrapopulation variation in movement is common in nature but its effects on population dynamics are poorly understood. Using movement data from 3270 individually-marked fish representing nine cohorts of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in California, we show that bimodal intrapopulation variation in the timing of juvenile down-migration from their natal habitat and subsequent residence in non-natal habitat affects growth, emigration timing, and the abundance and stability of adult returns. Non-natal fish (early down-migrants) exhibited more variable growth and more variable but earlier emigration to the estuary than natal fish (late down-migrants). While natal rearing was more common, non-natal fish were overrepresented among adult returns, and total returns were 1.4 times more stable than natal returns alone. Our results demonstrate that variation in migratory behaviour bolsters population stability. However, non-natal rearing is reduced in low water years, suggesting that drought exacerbates population instability by reducing critical intrapopulation variation.