Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-00953-w

Xiao Lin, Richard T. Burnett, Junyan Xi, Jianjun Bai, Yining Xiang, Tian Tian, Zhiqiang Li, Shimin Chen, Jie Jiang, Weihua Hu, Xiaowen Wang, Ying Wang, Zhicheng Du, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao

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Abstract

How the shape characterization of the concentration-response relationships between particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality influences life expectancy (LE) gains remains unclear. Based on the Pearl River Cohort, the 2021 World Health Organization air quality guidelines, and an integrated comparative risk assessment framework, we identified sigmodal relationships between PM_2.5, all-cause mortality, and LE reduction. A 10-unit increase in PM_2.5 was associated with an excess mortality risk of 31.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 27.6–35.0%). Reducing PM_2.5 to the guideline threshold of 5 μg/m³ could prevent 0.193 (0.175–0.212) million deaths, contributing to a 4.07–year (3.60–4.52) average LE gain. In contrast, PM_2.5 reductions by 5.6% and 10% resulted in smaller LE gains of 0.33 (0.28–0.38) and 0.58 (0.49–0.67) years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the nonlinear relationship in air pollution control and provide essential incentives for tailoring sustainable plans to enhance population longevity.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.