Impact of public climate change adaptation policies on women's employment and poverty in Burkina Faso

Abstract

Climate change is expected to bring hotter periods and reduced rainfall to Burkina Faso, decreasing water availability and soil moisture. This will negatively affect agriculture and food production. This study uses a gender-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked to a microsimulation model to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and two adaptation policies on sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as poverty (SDG1), food security (SDG2), gender equality (SDG5), and economic growth (SDG8) for Burkina Faso up to 2050. The CGE model utilizes the 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), while poverty incidence calculations are based on the 2018/2019 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey, which covers 7010 households in Burkina Faso. Climate change is projected to harm Burkina Faso's economy through production losses, price increases, reduced food access and availability, greater food import dependency, increased extreme poverty, and GDP losses. The scenario drives down employment, with women being the most affected. However, simulation results suggest that adaptation policies could mitigate these effects by improving food security, reducing extreme poverty, and addressing wage inequalities. Investing in agricultural research and development may be more effective than expanding irrigated land in mitigating climate change impacts, highlighting the need for robust adaptation policies to address gender pay disparities.