Simulating biotic disturbance responses in forests requires a balance of model performance, complexity, and accessibility

Abstract

Biotic disturbances, i.e. ecosystem perturbations driven by insects and pathogens, are distinct from abiotic events in their duration, severity, and variable effects on carbon (C) pools and fluxes. Because of these factors and their interactions with climate, biotic disturbances present a substantial challenge to ecosystem modelers attempting to balance model complexity, accessibility, and realism. Here we share our recent experience with model-data fusion experiments as part of the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE), using both a very simple and a highly complex model to simulate ecologically complex biotic disturbance responses. In this Viewpoint, our goals are to (1) synthesize our experiences with both models, weighing model complexity-process specificity trade-offs, and (2) suggest three priorities for future efforts to improve ecosystem modeling of biotic disturbance impacts to the terrestrial C cycle.