Global dry-wet patterns under various driving factors and their applications in projecting the future

IF 1.9 3区地球科学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Quaternary International Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2025.109708

Junjie Duan, Yu Li, Simin Peng, Yuxin Zhang, Zhansen Zhang, Mingjun Gao, Yaxin Xue, Hao Shang, Shiyu Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

From the paleoclimate perspective, investigating driving factors and dynamics mechanisms in different cold and warm periods can provide a scientific analogy for projecting future dry-wet patterns under global warming. Here, we conduct a systematic assessment of typical cold and warm periods, including the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), Pre-industrial (PI), Younger Dryas (YD), Bølling-Allerød (B/A), Little Ice Age (LIA), and Medieval Warm Period (MWP), with the comprehensive analysis of modern observations, climate simulations, and paleoclimate records to investigate the combined effect of various driving factors will have on the future global dry-wet patterns. Across the globe, various driving factors represented by ice sheets, orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and solar activity in different cold and warm periods have different impacts and sensitivities to regional dry-wet patterns. Based on the paleoclimate results of dry-wet patterns in typical cold and warm periods, future weakening AMOC will cause northeastern Europe, southeastern East Asia, and northern and southeastern South America to be drier, while if greenhouse gases continue to rise and the ice sheets continue to melt, this will lead to increased drought in the Mediterranean, southern North America and the southwest coast of South America.

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各种驱动因素下的全球干湿格局及其在预测未来中的应用

从古气候的角度研究不同冷暖期的驱动因子和动力机制，可以为预测未来全球变暖条件下的干湿格局提供科学类比。在此基础上，通过对现代观测、气候模拟和古气候记录的综合分析，对末次盛冰期（LGM）、中全新世（MH）、工业化前（PI）、新仙女木期（YD）、Bølling- allero ød （B/ a）、小冰期（LIA）和中世纪暖期（MWP）等典型冷暖期进行了系统评价，探讨了各种驱动因素对未来全球干湿格局的综合影响。在全球范围内，以冰盖、轨道强迫、温室气体、大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）和不同冷暖期太阳活动为代表的驱动因子对区域干湿格局的影响和敏感性不同。基于典型冷暖期干湿模式的古气候结果，未来AMOC的减弱将导致欧洲东北部、东亚东南部、南美洲北部和东南部更加干燥，而如果温室气体继续增加，冰盖继续融化，这将导致地中海、北美南部和南美洲西南海岸干旱加剧。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Quaternary International 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

4.50%

发文量

336

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Quaternary International is the official journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research. The objectives are to publish a high quality scientific journal under the auspices of the premier Quaternary association that reflects the interdisciplinary nature of INQUA and records recent advances in Quaternary science that appeal to a wide audience. This series will encompass all the full spectrum of the physical and natural sciences that are commonly employed in solving Quaternary problems. The policy is to publish peer refereed collected research papers from symposia, workshops and meetings sponsored by INQUA. In addition, other organizations may request publication of their collected works pertaining to the Quaternary.